Storms guide
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2027: What to Expect, Storm Names and When Forecasts Come Out
The 2027 Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November 2027. The first seasonal forecasts arrive in December and April; until then, the strongest clue is the El Niño that held back the 2026 season.
Updated 4 November 2026
The short answer
It is too early for a forecast with numbers. The big question for 2027 is how fast the strong El Niño of 2026 fades. El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes; if it gives way to neutral conditions or La Niña by late summer 2027, a more active season becomes more likely. The first full forecasts, from Tropical Storm Risk in December 2026 and Colorado State University in April 2027, will be the first real guide.
2026: one of the quietest starts on record
The 2026 season unfolded under a strong El Niño. By the climatological peak of the season, around 10 September, there had been only five named storms and no hurricanes, and the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE, a measure of the season's total wind energy) was about 7% of normal.
The first hurricane, Isaias, did not form until 7 October, one of the latest first hurricanes on record. It strengthened to Category 3 (about 193 km/h, 120 mph) on 9 October and made landfall near Destin, Florida, as a Category 2 that evening. It caused at least six deaths and left up to 930,000 customers without power. Subtropical Storm Josephine became the tenth named storm on 22 October.
| Named storms | Hurricanes | Major hurricanes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991–2020 average | 14 | 7 | 3 |
| NOAA outlook, May 2026 | 8–14 | 3–6 | 1–3 |
| NOAA update, August 2026 | 7–13 | 2–6 | 0–2 |
| CSU forecast, April 2026 | 13 | 6 | 2 |
| 2026 so far (late October) | 10 | 1 | 1 |
The season officially ends on 30 November. NOAA and CSU publish their season summaries after that, and the final numbers may change slightly as storms are reviewed.
El Niño and 2027
In October 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center rated El Niño as strong, with a better than 83% chance that a strong to very strong event continues through January–March 2027. The IRI at Columbia University expects it to fade during 2027: its forecast gives neutral conditions as the most likely state by June–August 2027.
- El Niño increases wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which tears developing storms apart. Every strong El Niño since 1950 has come with a below-normal Atlantic season.
- La Niña does the opposite: less shear, and usually a busier season.
- Neutral years depend more on how warm the tropical Atlantic is.
Seasons after a strong El Niño have varied. 1983, after the 1982–83 El Niño, had only four named storms; 1998 and 2016, after the strong events of 1997–98 and 2015–16, were both active. So the end of El Niño alone does not decide 2027.
The 2027 storm names
Atlantic storms take their names from six lists used in turn, set by the World Meteorological Organization. 2027 uses the list last used in 2021:
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Imani, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Imani replaces Ida, which was retired after the deadly hurricane of 2021. In March 2026 the WMO also retired Melissa, the Category 5 hurricane of 2025 that became the strongest on record to make landfall in Jamaica; it is replaced by Molly on the 2031 list. If a season uses all 21 names, a supplemental list is used instead of the Greek alphabet.
When the 2027 forecasts come out
| Forecaster | Usually published |
|---|---|
| Tropical Storm Risk (UK) | An extended-range forecast in early December, then updates in April, May, July and August |
| Colorado State University | Early April, then June, July and August |
| UK Met Office | Late May |
| NOAA | Late May, with an update in early August |
We will update this guide as each forecast is published.
Getting ready
- Know whether you live in a storm-surge or flood zone, and your evacuation route.
- Keep water, food, medicines, a torch, a radio and spare batteries for at least three days.
- Remember that the category describes wind only: water from surge and rain causes most hurricane deaths. See Hurricane categories explained.
- During the season, follow every active storm on the Storm tracker, and always follow your national weather service.
Sources
- NOAA CPC: 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, August update
- NOAA CPC: ENSO diagnostic discussion, October 2026
- IRI: ENSO forecast, October 2026
- Colorado State University: April 2026 forecast
- NOAA NHC: tropical cyclone names
- WMO: Melissa retired, replaced by Molly
- AccuWeather: Hurricane Isaias; NBC Miami: the season at its peak
Not an official warning service. In an emergency, follow your local authorities.