Record El Niño · live
El Niño 2026–27: the strongest on record, explained
In September 2026 the central Pacific broke the all-time daily record for El Niño, beating the giant of 2015, and forecasters expect it to keep strengthening into the winter. Here is what El Niño is, how strong this one is, and what it means for weather, storms, fires and food around the world.
Updated 5 November 2026
- Status
- El Niño Advisory (NOAA), in force since June 2026
- Strength
- Very strong; a new daily record on 21 September 2026
- Pacific right now
- +3.3 °C above normal in the Niño 3.4 region
- Expected peak
- November 2026 to January 2027
- Expected end
- Spring to early summer 2027
- Next NOAA update
- 12 November 2026
What El Niño is
El Niño is a natural swing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Every few years the trade winds that normally blow from east to west along the equator weaken, and the warm water they usually pile up near Indonesia and Australia spreads east towards South America. The ocean surface across the central and eastern Pacific becomes much warmer than normal, the big rain clouds move with the warm water, and weather patterns around the world shift with them.
Its opposite is La Niña, when the trade winds are stronger than usual and the eastern Pacific turns cool. Scientists call the whole cycle ENSO, short for El Niño–Southern Oscillation. An El Niño usually comes every two to seven years, builds through the northern summer and autumn, peaks around December and fades by the following spring or summer. Peruvian fishermen named it after the Christ child, El Niño, because the warm water reached their coast around Christmas.
How it is measured
Forecasters watch one box of ocean in particular: the Niño 3.4 region, from 5° North to 5° South and 170° West to 120° West, in the middle of the Pacific. They compare its surface temperature with the 30-year average for the time of year.
| Above normal (3-month average) | What it is called |
|---|---|
| +0.5 °C or more | El Niño (weak) |
| +1.0 °C or more | Moderate |
| +1.5 °C or more | Strong |
| +2.0 °C or more | Very strong, often called a “super El Niño” |
The official number is the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), the 3-month average of the Niño 3.4 reading. Because the whole tropical ocean is warmer than it used to be, NOAA now also uses a relative index (RONI), which subtracts the warming of the tropics as a whole. On that measure NOAA counts anything above +2.5 °C as historic, and the 2026–27 event is close to the strongest on record rather than far beyond it. Either way, it is one of the most powerful El Niños ever measured.
How strong the 2026–27 El Niño is
This El Niño grew faster than any before it. On 21 September 2026 the daily reading in the Niño 3.4 region reached 3.11 °C above normal, beating the record of 3.08 °C set on 18 November 2015, at a time of year when earlier giants were still well short of their peak. By mid-October the weekly reading was 3.3 °C. Every strong El Niño on record has kept strengthening after mid-September.
How it built up
- April 2026A weak La Niña fades and the Pacific turns neutral.
- 2 JuneThe World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is developing.
- 11 JuneNOAA declares El Niño conditions and issues an El Niño Advisory.
- AugustThe Niño 3.4 region averages about 2.45 °C above normal for the month, above the peak of every earlier event except 2015–16.
- 22 AugustCopernicus measures the warmest sea surface ever recorded between 60° North and 60° South: 21.11 °C.
- 21 SeptemberA new daily record: 3.11 °C above normal, beating 3.08 °C from 18 November 2015. California declares a state of emergency to prepare for winter storms.
- SeptemberThe month averages 2.84 °C above normal. The Atlantic still has no hurricane; the first, Isaias, forms on 7 October, the latest first hurricane of the satellite era.
- 8 OctoberNOAA gives an 83% chance of a historic event in October to December and says strong to very strong conditions are likely through early 2027.
- 14 OctoberWeekly reading: 3.3 °C above normal.
- 19 OctoberIRI/Columbia: model average peak about 3.5 °C in late 2026; El Niño almost certain to last through spring 2027.
When it peaks and ends
NOAA expects El Niño to keep strengthening until the end of 2026 and says strong to very strong conditions are likely through January to March 2027, with an 83% chance of a historic event in October to December. The IRI/Columbia model average peaks at about 3.5 °C above normal in late 2026; a September survey of 14 forecast systems averaged about 4 °C. No forecast system has been tested on an event this large, and the models ran slightly warm over the summer, so the exact peak is uncertain.
El Niño is almost certain to last through spring 2027. By June to August 2027 a neutral Pacific becomes the most likely state. Big El Niños are often followed by La Niña within a year or so.
What it does around the world
El Niño does not cause any single storm or drought, but it loads the dice. These are the effects that usually come with a strong El Niño, most of them in the northern winter, and what has already happened in 2026.
| Where | What El Niño usually brings | Seen in 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Peru and Ecuador | Heavy rain and flooding on the coast; fish stocks collapse as the cold, nutrient-rich water stops rising. | – |
| Southern USA and Mexico | A wetter, stormier winter, especially California, the Gulf Coast and Florida; higher risk of floods and mudslides. | California declared a state of emergency on 21 September. |
| Northern USA and Canada | A milder winter with less snow than usual. | – |
| Central America and the Caribbean | Drought, water rationing and poor harvests. | Panama cut canal transits from 36 to 32 a day in September; Puerto Rico, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic rationed water. |
| Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina | More rain and flooding. | – |
| Amazon and northern South America | Drought and a higher risk of forest fires. | – |
| Indonesia and the Philippines | Drought, failed harvests, forest and peat fires with heavy smoke. | Indonesia had more fire hotspots in August than in any month since 2015. |
| Australia | Hotter, drier weather in the east and a worse bushfire season the following spring and summer. | – |
| India | A weaker summer monsoon. | September rainfall was nearly half of normal. |
| Southern Africa | Drought and poor maize harvests in the growing season. | – |
| East Africa | Wetter short rains from October to December, with flood risk. | – |
| Europe | Only a weak, unreliable signal. Some El Niño winters bring colder late-winter spells to northern Europe, but other weather patterns matter much more. | – |
The World Food Programme estimates that almost 50 million more people could face acute hunger by 2027 because of failed rains and harvests.
Hurricanes and typhoons
El Niño strengthens the winds high above the Atlantic and Caribbean. This wind shear tears developing storms apart, so Atlantic hurricane seasons in El Niño years are usually quiet. The opposite happens in the eastern and central Pacific, where the warmer water feeds more and stronger hurricanes, and typhoons in the western Pacific tend to form further east and grow stronger over a longer track.
2026 followed the pattern: the Atlantic’s first hurricane did not form until 7 October, while the eastern Pacific was far busier than average and two hurricanes, Lala and Lowell, affected Hawaii within weeks. Read the Atlantic hurricane season 2027 outlook for what may come next.
Wildfires and smoke
Drought in Indonesia, Australia and the Amazon makes El Niño years the worst for fires there. In Indonesia, burning peatland sends smoke across Southeast Asia; in 2026 it briefly made Kuala Lumpur one of the most polluted cities in the world. Australia’s worst bushfire seasons often come in the spring and summer after an El Niño. See wildfire smoke and air quality.
Global temperature
An El Niño releases heat from the ocean into the air and lifts the average temperature of the whole planet by roughly 0.1 to 0.2 °C for a while. The effect lags the Pacific by several months, so most of the extra warmth from this event is expected in 2027, on top of long-term warming from greenhouse gases. 2026 is on course to be the warmest or second-warmest year on record, and 2027 could beat it.
Earthquakes and volcanoes
El Niño does not cause earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. They are driven by forces deep inside the Earth that ocean temperatures cannot change. Rare studies have found tiny effects of rainfall and sea level on stress near faults, but nothing that changes the risk in a way that matters to people.
Following it
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center publishes its ENSO update on the second Thursday of each month (the next on 12 November 2026), and IRI/Columbia publishes its forecast a week later. This page is updated after each NOAA update, and the reading at the top comes straight from NOAA’s weekly sea temperature data. To see what El Niño is doing to the weather right now, follow storms on the Storm tracker, fires and earthquakes on the Live map, and the week’s events in This week on Earth.
Sources
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO diagnostic discussion (8 October 2026)
- IRI/Columbia University: ENSO forecast (19 October 2026)
- Carbon Brief: “Super El Niño” breaks “remarkable” all-time record (September 2026)
- Union of Concerned Scientists: strongest El Niño on record and its effects
- Wikipedia: 2026–2027 El Niño event
- NOAA weekly Niño 3.4 sea temperature data (the live reading)
Not an official warning service. In an emergency, follow your local authorities.